Ranking the five NBA teams with the best futures, including the Spurs and Thunder
For the previous two years, the Oklahoma City Thunder have led ESPN's NBA Future Power Rankings. OKC earned "the highest FPR for any team since the Kevin Durant-era Golden State Warriors" in the previous year's competition.
They were probably just dethroned by the San Antonio Spurs.
In Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs defeated the reigning champion Thunder, upending the NBA. According to ESPN's Anthony Slater, they are the second-youngest Finals team in NBA history "based on weighted minutes played," and they are the first team to advance to the Finals with two of their top scorers under 22.
The Thunder's future is still incredibly bright even if they lost to the Spurs, in part because Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (calf) missed the majority of the Western Conference Finals. Right now, twenty-eight other clubs would gladly switch places with them. Not the one with Victor Wembanyama, though.
Now is the ideal time to examine the league's environment and assess the clubs with the best futures, as the dust from the Spurs and Thunder's thrilling Western Conference Finals match is still settling.
Los Angeles Lakers: Honorable Mention
The Lakers have Luka Dončić and are expected to have roughly $50 million in cap space this summer. Lakers Exceptionalism wins again.
They also have two major free-agent question marks in Austin Reaves and LeBron James.
Reaves seems likely to return, perhaps on a below-max contract. LeBron is no sure thing, as next season seems likely to be his last, and he may have his eyes set on a final destination.
If the Lakers run back the same group whom the Thunder just swept sans Dončić in the Western Conference Semifinals, they won't be long for this spot. But if they do make a major upgrade—and this is their best chance to do so cap-wise—Dončić has already proven to be both a floor- and ceiling-raiser.
The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves both have superstars of their own, but both are facing significant salary-cap issues this offseason. The Indiana Pacers are getting back Tyrese Haliburton from a torn Achilles and Ivica Zubac from a rib injury after he played only five games following his arrival at the trade deadline, so they could challenge the New York Knicks for the top of the East next year.
But for now, this spot is the Lakers' to lose. No pressure, Rob Pelinka.
Just missed the cut: Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Minnesota Timberwolves
5. Houston Rockets
Even though starting point guard Fred VanVleet tore his ACL before the season began, the Rockets finished 52-30 to earn the No. 5 seed in the West playoffs. Kevin Durant played only once in their first-round loss to the Lakers, who jumped out to a 3-0 series lead before the KD-less Rockets battled back and won two straight games.
VanVleet's $25 million player option will largely dictate what they can do this offseason. They're projected to be $21.5 million below the first apron and $34.5 million below the second apron, which matters when it comes to resigning restricted free agent Tari Eason. He's their only major free agent of note, though.
The Rockets have a young core of Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard flanked by some win-now veterans in Durant, VanVleet and Steven Adams. If they stay healthy and re-sign Eason, they have the versatility to at least make some noise in the playoffs.
Amen Thompson improving as a three-point shooter would go a long way toward improving their viability as a legitimate championship contender.
4. New York Knicks
If they don't, they won't have much room to pivot without giving up one of their core pieces.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($57.1 million), OG Anunoby ($42.5 million), Jalen Brunson ($37.7 million), Mikal Bridges ($33.5 million) and Josh Hart ($20.9 million) alone are making more than $191.7 million next season. The luxury-tax line is projected to be $201 million, while the first and second aprons are projected to be $209 million and $222 million, respectively.
The Knicks also have Miles McBride ($4.0 million), Pacome Dadiet ($3.0 million), Tyler Kolek ($2.3 million) and the No. 24 pick to round out their roster. If (when?) Jose Alvarado picks up his $4.5 million player option, they'll already be at nearly $209 million. That means they'll have the $6.1 million taxpayer mid-level exception to add to their roster at most.
Still, the Knicks might not need to make major upgrades, particularly if Giannis Antetokounmpo leaves the East. They blasted through the Eastern Conference playoff bracket this year, and there's no guarantee that it's significantly better next season.
The Knicks won't be able to sustain a payroll this forever, but Brunson's well-below-market deal was the key to making it all work for now. As long as they can keep that up, they should remain in the championship conversation.
3. Utah Jazz
Is it premature to put the Jazz this high when we don't know who they'll take with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 NBA draft — or if they'll even stay put there? Probably.
But look over their collection of young talent and future draft picks, and you'll realize it's less hasty than you might expect.
The Jazz already have Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen and Ace Bailey under contract for the next three seasons. They also have Keyonte George, who could have been in the All-Star conversation if the Jazz weren't actively tanking all year. He might have averaged the quietest 23.6 points and 6.1 assists per game in NBA history last season.
George becomes extension-eligible this offseason, so the Jazz need to figure out what their walkaway price is. But before they decide on George, they have to deal with Walker Kessler going into restricted free agency first.
Kessler averaged a career-high 14.4 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 30.8 minutes per game this season, but he lasted only five games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. League insiders still expect him to sign a new deal with the Jazz "in the range of $25 to $30 million a year," according to ESPN's Tim Bontemps.
A top six of George, Bailey, Markkanen, JJJ, Kessler and the No. 2 overall pick is nothing to scoff at. If any team can slow down Wembanyama and the Spurs, it could be the one with three 7-footers in its starting lineup, including one former Defensive Player of the Year.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
The last thing the Thunder should do after their loss to the Spurs is overreact.
No, they don't need to trade Chet Holmgren for Giannis Antetokounmpo because he had one bad playoff series. Particularly not if it would cost them multiple key rotation players.
However, the Thunder do have a looming financial cliff to confront.
Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are about to start the 25 percent max contract extensions that they signed last offseason. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 35 percent supermax begins in 2027-28. That has rival executives hovering over the Thunder's roster like vultures, looking to poach role players who might have priced themselves out of OKC.
Even if the Thunder do need to shed fringe rotation players such as Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins for financial reasons, though, they have plenty of depth and assets to keep a strong supporting cast in place.
Ajay Mitchell is on one of the NBA's best contracts at only $2.85 million for each of the next two seasons. Jared McCain and Nikola Topić are on their rookie-scale deals for another two years, while 2025 No. 15 overall pick Thomas Sorber, who missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL, is on his for another three years.
The Thunder also have the Nos. 12 and 17 picks in this year's draft, which they could use to explore a trade up. Getting into the top four might be a pipe dream, but might they look to move up for Michigan center Aday Mara as their antidote to Wembanyama?
The Thunder have been operating on easy mode for the past two years since Chet and J-Dub were still on rookie-scale deals. That's now over. But they've already been planning for this stage of their building process for years. That will become evident soon enough.
1. San Antonio Spurs
